June 21, 2007, 6:40 PM by andrewc513 to sgross2006
The 65nm systems should be coming out between those two time periods you mentioned. If it does come around that time, prices won't drop immediately. It'll take a month or few months. Which, to me, makes an Xbox 360 price drop seem very likely around the holidays(late Nov. - Dec.). Cheaper price + holiday sales spike = hella sales.

July 25, 2007, 11:14 AM by chairmansteve
Madden is near. That's the first potential price drop window since E3. One week before Madden should be enough time for the Madden crowd to count their pennies.

What about a free game bundle? Game bundles are usually done in Q4. MS might pack in one or two games that are not too recent and not Rated M. Maybe Forza 2 for Pro/Elite? Maybe a few Live Arcade games?

July 31, 2007, 3:30 PM by chairmansteve
Retail leaks hit the web from Toys R Us, Wal-Mart, and Circuit City. They each show the Pro at $349 in August, while Circuit City also has the Core at $279 and Elite at $449. That's more conservative than expected. If true, the Pro should definitely get the most retail marketing.

August 2, 2007, 8:58 AM by Arande
I would most certainly pick up a Elite for $400. I'm really waiting till the Marvel MMO comes out before I get one though. I usually just borrow other peoples' 360.

August 2, 2007, 11:31 AM by nenroth to Arande
Oh wow! I forgot about this game: The Marvel MMO. Another reason to buy an Xbox.

I'd really like to pay 200$ or less for a Xbox 100 gig or more. How long will I wait ?

August 2, 2007, 1:28 PM by chairmansteve to nenroth
Xbox 360 with 120GB HDD for $200? That may be in 2011.

August 7, 2007, 4:16 AM by monsly
Just to rubber stamp things, the 360 prices have been officially confirmed now:

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Xbox 360 Elite: $449.99 ($30 drop)
Xbox 360 Premium: $349.99 ($50 drop)
Xbox 360 Core: $279.99 ($20 drop)

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http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3161780

I wonder if we are likely to see anymore price drops in the near future? I think the 360 could get a real boost if the premium was to go below $300.

August 7, 2007, 4:53 PM by chairmansteve to monsly
Two price drops in a short time is very unlikely, but it's possible in this case. A price drop could happen before Guitar Hero 3, in late October. But with GTA4 now in 2008, I think MS will wait.

Before GTA4, I'd like to see: $199 Core, $299 Pro, $399 Elite.

Then in late 2008, each model can be upgraded, or Elite can replace Pro.

$199 Core 512MB (memory unit)
$299 Pro 60-80GB or Elite 120GB
$399 Elite 250GB or Ultimate 120-160GB with HD-DVD

October 14, 2007, 12:35 PM by chairmansteve
I was going to wait a month to see if Xbox 360 has another price cut this year, but I'll reveal my price roadmap now for the next six years.

March 2008: $249 Arcade, $299 Pro, $399 Elite

That should be the price before GTA4 hits.

September 2008: $199 Arcade, $299 Elite

In late 2008, MS may choose to phase out the Pro System and have the Elite take its place. The alternative price would be $249 Pro and $349 Elite. There is also a possibility for upgrades (e.g. bigger HDD, WiFi) for Pro/Elite while staying at $299/$399.

2009: $199 Mini, $299 Elite

2009 could see major changes to the hardware. In late 2009, I'd like to see a redesigned smaller Xbox 360 with built-in WiFi and 1GB internal flash memory. Elite could be replaced by an Ultimate System at $299 with HD-DVD for movies.

2010: $149 Mini, $249 Elite

2010 doesn't need any new SKUs. But if Mini is not launched in 2009, it should happen no later than October 2010.

2011/2012: $129 Mini

If Elite or Ultimate is still around, it could be $199.

2013/2014: $99 Mini

Late 2013 should be soon enough for $99.

October 14, 2007, 4:35 PM by Gripper to chairmansteve

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September 2008: $199 Arcade, $299 Elite

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Well, it's got to be the alternative($249 Pro and $349 Elite), if it comes to choosing between the two options.
It seems to me that consumers have decidedly voted against the no-hard-drive 360's, with the Pro being the top seller, and the Core not selling well.
Not a good idea to discontinue to most popular model and leave the least popular model, even if the least popular model is selling at a cheaper price.
I think MS will still be selling all 3 models come September next year though.

October 15, 2007, 12:40 AM by chairmansteve to Gripper
Only 10-25% of a potential installed base has an Xbox 360. The remaining 75-90% may choose differently when prices are lower and the game library is larger. And the least popular model (Core) is being replaced soon by Arcade.

I see $199 Arcade and $299 Elite as the most effective combination for Xmas 2008. It cuts the number of models down to two and offers buyers a great value for each. Of course, Microsoft may choose not to be so aggressive.

HDD manufacturers will stop producing 20GB 2.5" drives, if not already. I think the 20GB Pro SKU will be phased out in 2008. Maybe Pro and Elite will be updated with a bigger HDD (e.g. 60-80GB Pro and 250GB Elite). Then we can have $199 Arcade, $299 New Pro, and $399 New Elite.

January 23, 2008, 10:30 PM by chairmansteve
We're possibly two months away from a price drop, so it's speculation time.

Mar 2008: $249 Arcade, $299 Pro, $399 Elite
Sep 2008: $199 Arcade, $249 Pro, $349 Elite

I'm undecided on Fall 2008 pricing for Pro and Elite. What's most likely to happen, if there is any price change? Do HDD producers make 20GB 2.5" drives today? If not, the Pro SKU will eventually need to be updated or discontinued. How about we get SKU crazy? MS can increase the HDD size, and the older models can be sold at $50 less while supplies last.

$199 Arcade
$249 Pro 20GB (until sold out)
$299 Pro 60-80GB
$349 Elite 120GB (until sold out)
$399 Elite 250GB and/or some other upgrade

Fall 2008 Summary
Aggressive: $199 Arcade, $299 Pro 60-80GB, $399 Elite 250GB
Conservative: $249 Arcade, $349 Pro 60-80GB, $399 Elite 120GB

We probably won't see a model with internal HD-DVD unless Microsoft licenses Xbox 360 technology to Toshiba to build its own model.

January 24, 2008, 7:15 AM by nenroth to chairmansteve
I really think that Xbox will drop price when the PS3 drops the price. M$ is clearly in a winning positioning against Sony this gen, they just need to sit down and wait for Sony to make its move so they'll back stab them shortly after ;)

This christmass there were a lot of unbought PS3 while I didn't find any Wii anywhere and a lot of places had no more Xboxs to sell.

Do you still think that M$ will release an Ultimate Xbox 360?

January 24, 2008, 7:16 AM by Hawk4x4 to chairmansteve
I'm curoius to know what information you based your predictions on and how you came up with your timetable. It seems that two price drops in a year is a little much.

January 24, 2008, 3:05 PM by chairmansteve to Hawk4x4
I wouldn't predict two price drops in a single year, but 2008 is the exception. And if there are two, they should be around 6 months apart.

The March cut is for GTA4 (a.k.a. biggest game of the year), and the console has been on the market long enough to be $100 less than launch. When Xbox 360 only dropped $50 last August, I presumed that another $50 drop would come in 6-7 months. I see that GTA4 now has an official date of April 29, so the 360 price cut could wait until April (maybe 23rd at the latest), but March is still fine.

The cut later in the year is to get an option under $200 for the 4th Xmas.