 3rd Generation Xbox Specs for 2011
Published: November 9, 2007, 5:54 PM CST
By chairmansteve
It's early enough to start speculating on the next Xbox (Xbox 3, Xbox 720). We'll need a timeframe for the launch before estimating specs. Q4 2010 would be the earliest, while Q4 2011 I think is the most likely. So let's say Q4 2010 to Q4 2012. Anything in that range would have similar specs.
The goals should be (1) low-cost reliable hardware with enough performance and (2) great tools for game developers. In other words, don't put a furnace in the box, don't stuff it with costly unnecessary features, and don't expect developers to fumble with a million threads each with its own 1K local memory. Keep it simple on both ends.
I think Microsoft will stick with PowerPC CPU and ATI GPU. There is no reason to switch unless another solution allows lower cost for the hardware and/or software. Maybe AMD could offer a nice deal for a CPU/GPU combo, but PowerPC would allow simple backward compatibility with Xbox 360.
The Main Processor
The CPU will obviously be multi-core and at least triple-core. I think quad-core is enough with 2MB L2 shared cache. Combine that with an array of smaller cores accessed via an API similar to a PPU or GPU. 16MB eDRAM (or Z-RAM) cache may be something to consider to meet the bandwidth requirement of all those cores.
The alternative would be 8 main cores, 4MB L2, and no smaller cores.
The Graphics Processor
An evolution of Radeon HD (R600) and the Xbox 360 GPU (Xenos) would be fine. Add more shader and texture pipes/processors. Increase the clock speed. And update the shader model (6.0?). eDRAM should be enough to fit 1920x1080 32-bit with 2x MSAA without tiling. That's 32MB.
Memory
Advancing memory is simple. Increase capacity and bandwidth. We'll need 2GB to 4GB of high-speed main memory. 2GB fast GDDR5/GDDR6 plus 512MB (or 1GB) slower RAM could be interesting. Not everything needs blistering speed. A relatively slow auxiliary memory could be a cost-effective way to maximize the use of main memory.
Storage Drives
Some next generation big budget games could use more space than DVD, and HD-DVD with a speed of 4x or 6x may be economical in 2011, as long as the format still exists. A holographic format is doubtful but would please the tech nerds on the Net.
As for disc bandwidth, 6x HD-DVD would be the equivalent of 19.5x DVD and not a large leap over 12x DVD from Xbox 360. Too slow for the load time nerds? Games may need large RAM, some auxiliary RAM, or a drive cache to help decrease the number of disc accesses. An option to "install" to the HDD would be nice.
A hard disk drive I expect will be optional and swappable again, but all systems may come with some storage, HDD or Flash. HDD sizes may start at 250GB, while an "Elite" model has 750GB.
Communication
Ethernet and WiFi for networking should be standard. USB is the obvious choice for wired peripherals. What about wireless devices (controllers, etc.)? They could use the same proprietary protocol from Xbox 360 and/or Wireless USB.
Controller
Were you waiting for this part? The decision for what will be the standard controller can wait. Microsoft has time to gauge what consumers want. For now, I'll pencil in a wireless traditional game controller with some improvements such as TouchSense Vibration. A motion sensing wand could also be available separately packed with a casual game. Other options are a standard two-piece (or three with headset) motion controller or a standard 3D camera.
Spec Summary
32nm Chip Process Technology
IBM CPU at 4.8GHz (4 Main Cores + Many Small Cores)
ATI GPU at 800MHz
2GB GDDR5 Main RAM (~80 GB/sec)
512MB Auxiliary RAM
HD-DVD 6x Drive (216Mbps)
250GB 2.5-inch HDD
Ethernet, WiFi, USB
Flash Memory Unit Slots
Any requests for more details in specific areas? | | | Comments | July 2, 2008, 3:28 PM by Airzonk to chairmansteve
Here's a 32GB usb memory stick for $95. Just think how low that price will be in 2 or 3 years. A 64 GB version is available for $350. The prices on solid state memory comes down very quick.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820208403 | July 2, 2008, 3:43 PM by chairmansteve to Airzonk
That's way too expensive. Media needs to be around $1.
If that 32GB drops to $25, that's still way too expensive. You want publishers to spend $25 out of the $60 retail price for a game just on the physical media? Every dollar more spent on the physical media is one dollar less in the publisher's pocket. | July 2, 2008, 8:58 PM by DAISHI
If you're going to dream, you might as well hope for 2x 300GB 10,000 rpm hdd's in RAID 0! (Heh, even on my new PC I just went for 2x 250GB 7200 rpm hdd's in RAID 0 because it was too expensive to go with the 10,000 rpm's and still have my desired hdd capacity, RAID 0 is still faster than the basic hdd's I've always used.) | July 2, 2008, 9:59 PM by Airzonk to chairmansteve
If it drops to $25, that might be the retail price. The cost to make them is cheaper. I'm sure that stick didn't cost $95 to make. I'm guessing it cost around $60 to make it. In three years that price will go down to $10. Let's say that now there is a $9 difference to print the game on solid state. Don't you think that will be something the gamer will want? Faster loading times for games is a big plus. Also, they won't get scratched. Also the price to manufacture is going to drop more and more as years go by in the next generation goes on. Also, some kind of solid state media can be made to read only. That might cut costs down too.
One way or another, consoles are going to go back to carts as solid state media gets cheaper. I think three years from now would be a good time to start. If Microsoft doesn't do it, then Nintendo or Sony will. | July 3, 2008, 5:02 AM by chairmansteve to Airzonk
That stick might not cost much less than $95 for the store.
$9 extra is still too expensive. Solid state can be the future for content distribution, but only when it makes financial sense. Load-times and scratch-resistance are secondary.
Backward compatibility goes out the window if there is no optical drive. But that's not a major issue. BC can be dumped or offered in a more expensive model.
Downloadable to HDD cuts out media/box manufacturing, physical distribution, retail markup, and preowned games. The publisher can also rent games directly to customers.
I wouldn't mind if games have a small footprint early in the generation. That would force high-end games to give us procedural graphics, if they want high detail. And the low budget games won't be affected, as they don't need the huge space anyway. Optical would then only be for movie discs and backward compatibility, both nonessential features for a basic model.
2011 = 2-8 GB
2013 = 4-16 GB
2015 = 8-32 GB
2017 = 16-64 GB
2019 = 32-128 GB
That's just one estimate for cart media that might, if we're lucky, cost around $1 or $2. Hopefully we'll be at the high end of those size ranges. Also, some major games like Gears of War or Halo might splurge for a bigger cart.
http://www.vgmuseum.com/scans/scans2/strider_front.jpg?
There could be just one SKU, while one or two HDD sizes are sold separately. An optical drive could be external or a full Xbox 360 Mini redesigned console released in 2013.
- $299 Xbox 2011/2012 (Carts Only)
- HDD Sold Separately: $99 (320GB) and $149 (1TB)
- $99 or $129 Xbox 360 Mark III (DVD, 4GB Internal Flash, No HDD)
It's so crazy, it just might work. | July 3, 2008, 5:05 AM by chairmansteve to DAISHI
RAID? Not in a basic model, unless it's a can of bug spray. One regular speed HDD costs enough. You might get your dream in an overpriced high-end model from a 3rd party manufacturer, maybe one that makes its own hard disks or markets to enthusiasts. | July 3, 2008, 7:55 AM by Airzonk to chairmansteve
Do you think it's possible to use some kind of compression technique on the cart? Perhaps a powerfull CPU could decode the compression and run the game without any noticeable load times? | July 3, 2008, 10:03 AM by chairmansteve to Airzonk
Compression is best when each type of content (texture, audio, etc.) has its own optimized algorithms. The only area that needs attention is graphics. That's where games are getting bigger with larger textures and more polygons.
There may be some advancements in texture compression. The ultimate compression is procedural. Instead of storing a 2048 x 2048 texture (4MB with alpha), just a small amount of data is stored that tells the processor how to create the texture at load-time.
Polygonal detail can be generated in real-time using tessellation hardware and a control point shader. That's practically like polygon compression. Tesselation is a major area of DirectX 11.
http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=23957 | December 19, 2009, 12:56 PM by ultimatewarrior
dude u wont see another home console....virtual reality baby! | |
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