 3rd Generation Xbox Specs for 2011
Published: November 9, 2007, 5:54 PM CST
By chairmansteve
It's early enough to start speculating on the next Xbox (Xbox 3, Xbox 720). We'll need a timeframe for the launch before estimating specs. Q4 2010 would be the earliest, while Q4 2011 I think is the most likely. So let's say Q4 2010 to Q4 2012. Anything in that range would have similar specs.
The goals should be (1) low-cost reliable hardware with enough performance and (2) great tools for game developers. In other words, don't put a furnace in the box, don't stuff it with costly unnecessary features, and don't expect developers to fumble with a million threads each with its own 1K local memory. Keep it simple on both ends.
I think Microsoft will stick with PowerPC CPU and ATI GPU. There is no reason to switch unless another solution allows lower cost for the hardware and/or software. Maybe AMD could offer a nice deal for a CPU/GPU combo, but PowerPC would allow simple backward compatibility with Xbox 360.
The Main Processor
The CPU will obviously be multi-core and at least triple-core. I think quad-core is enough with 2MB L2 shared cache. Combine that with an array of smaller cores accessed via an API similar to a PPU or GPU. 16MB eDRAM (or Z-RAM) cache may be something to consider to meet the bandwidth requirement of all those cores.
The alternative would be 8 main cores, 4MB L2, and no smaller cores.
The Graphics Processor
An evolution of Radeon HD (R600) and the Xbox 360 GPU (Xenos) would be fine. Add more shader and texture pipes/processors. Increase the clock speed. And update the shader model (6.0?). eDRAM should be enough to fit 1920x1080 32-bit with 2x MSAA without tiling. That's 32MB.
Memory
Advancing memory is simple. Increase capacity and bandwidth. We'll need 2GB to 4GB of high-speed main memory. 2GB fast GDDR5/GDDR6 plus 512MB (or 1GB) slower RAM could be interesting. Not everything needs blistering speed. A relatively slow auxiliary memory could be a cost-effective way to maximize the use of main memory.
Storage Drives
Next generation big budget games could use more space than DVD, and HD-DVD with a speed of 4x or 6x should be economical in 2011. A holographic format is doubtful but would please the tech nerds on the Net.
As for disc bandwidth, 6x HD-DVD would be the equivalent of 19.5x DVD and not a large leap over 12x DVD from Xbox 360. Too slow for the load time nerds? Games may need large RAM, some auxiliary RAM, or a drive cache to help decrease the number of disc accesses. An option to "install" to the HDD could be nice.
A hard disk drive I expect will be optional and swappable again, but all systems may come with some storage, HDD or Flash. HDD sizes may start at 250GB, while an "Elite" model has 750GB.
Communication
Ethernet and WiFi for networking should be standard. USB is the obvious choice for wired peripherals. What about wireless devices (controllers, etc.)? They could use the same proprietary protocol from Xbox 360 and/or Wireless USB.
Controller
Were you waiting for this part? The decision for what will be the standard controller can wait. Microsoft has time to gauge what consumers want. For now, I'll pencil in a wireless traditional game controller with some improvements such as TouchSense Vibration. A motion sensing wand could also be available separately packed with a casual game.
Spec Summary
32nm Chip Process Technology
IBM CPU at 4.8GHz (4 Main Cores + Many Small Cores)
ATI GPU at 800MHz
2GB GDDR5 Main RAM (~80 GB/sec)
512MB Auxiliary RAM
HD-DVD 6x Drive (216Mbps)
250GB 2.5-inch HDD
Ethernet, WiFi, USB
Flash Memory Unit Slots
Any requests for more details in specific areas? | | | Comments | November 10, 2007, 10:19 AM by boohoohoo
Wiimote schmmimote. The Wii is a one trick pony. All MS need to do is deliver a killer console for $299 next gen with a motion sensive controller that could be a wand/controller hybrid and Nintendo are finished.
I can't believe how low people's expectations have suddenly become. | November 10, 2007, 11:02 AM by Suckattack to boohoohoo
LOL Good one!
I'm still waiting for all that hyped up graphics the PS3 used during E3 '05. I think graphics like that will be available come the next gen. | November 10, 2007, 1:23 PM by bfun to chairmansteve
I'll make a prediction. The 2011 Xbox wont have separate GPU/CPUs. I think that's a reasonable possibility in 3 years.
The R600? By evolution do you mean something smaller? 80nm seems a bit big for 2011. | November 10, 2007, 1:40 PM by Gripper to bfun
Didn't top top chip whiz at AMD/ATI make a similar prediction just this week?
Bob Feldstein, VP of strategic development, AMD: "I'll say that what I see the future as is a combined CPU/GPU, where the delineations are not there anymore. You combine them into a chip; you have compute elements of both, and jobs get kind of -- threads get kind of put on the resources that are best suited for them".
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/1995/amd_on_graphics_360_and_wii_gpu_.php?page=2 | November 10, 2007, 1:59 PM by bfun to Gripper
The day ATI and AMD teamed up I assumed it would happen although I think it's success is questionable. | November 10, 2007, 4:18 PM by chairmansteve to bfun
The CPU and GPU combined on a single chip is certainly possible.
Smaller is an evolution of manufacturing, not GPU architecture. Who said anything about 80nm? GPU evolution would be something like R800 or R900, assuming that it doesn't radically change the way graphics are rendered. In other words, it'll have texture sampling, vertices, thread/stream processing, z-buffer, blending, etc. The console version just won't be as high-end as the high-end PC part. | November 10, 2007, 5:08 PM by chairmansteve to boohoohoo
It would be a sad day if MS got lazy enough to just overclock six year old hardware. That's not the only way to cut costs. The clock speed doesn't need a big boost, but I expect and hope to see an updated improved architecture without making life hard for developers. Performance-wise, it could be cutting edge for 2009 and cost effective for 2011. Xbox 360 was cutting edge for 2005 at its launch.
I'm thinking $399 with HDD but an earlier or bigger price drop than this generation. | November 10, 2007, 6:06 PM by CaptainScarlet
I hope to see nanotechnology for those years. | November 10, 2007, 6:20 PM by chairmansteve to CaptainScarlet
90nm is already considered nanotechnology. Anything smaller is also nanotechnology. For 2011, we're looking at 32nm most likely. | November 10, 2007, 6:58 PM by boohoohoo
Xbox 360 has an incredible attachment rate of 7 games per console. Assuming the next system has similar attach rate, with those kinds of margins on Live, microtransactions, software and accessories, MS can afford to spend a little more on higher end hardware, take a slightly bigger financial hit in the short term on more expensive manufacturing cost, and more than make it up in the long term.
I would expect the next Xbox to be even more technically advanced than PCs and competing systems on its release than the 360 was back in 2005. Xbox gamers expect raw power. If Nintendo takes the low brow hardware market, the MS needs to aim for the top. | November 10, 2007, 7:15 PM by chairmansteve to boohoohoo
The cost saving would be short term and long term. And it's not only about cost. The extra power may just produce more heat in the box without giving any noticeable performance difference for games. The benefit would only be for forum fights on spec superiority and Super PI benchmarks. The goal should be to build smart hardware for game developers, not just powerful hardware and big specs.
Xbox gamers expect great games. | November 11, 2007, 12:19 AM by Hawk4x4 to bfun
The Xbox360 and the Wii predate the AMD/ATI union, so who knows if either console's successor will even have an ATI GPU. AMD may not be as liberal with licensing technology as ATI has been.
Personally, I wish Xbox had stuck with nVidia in the first place. | November 11, 2007, 8:44 AM by Gripper to Hawk4x4
nVidia wasn't prepared to meet Microsoft's terms, which included Microsoft buying outright rights to some of the graphics IP. A similar thing happened with Intel as well, so Microsoft went to IBM and ATI, who were more amenable to reason.
After all, it'd have been easier for Microsoft to just stick with ATI and Intel, from the point of view of backward compatibility. | November 12, 2007, 11:12 AM by Alex to Hawk4x4
The AMD merger makes it more likely that it won't have a PPC processor. | November 22, 2007, 10:29 AM by nenroth
Did someone saw that movie: Strange Days, released on 1995. There was this device that you put on your head and voilą! Lots of virtual stuff inside your head! Real virtual games for hardcore and mature people, like real killing in Irak or a Super Date with your fantasy women.
Or maybe the virtual Xbox we see in the movie : The Island, with Scarlett Johansson (grrr). | |
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